May 03, 2004
Peak 2006-07
Samsam Bakhtiari has published an article in the 26 April 2004 issue of Oil and Gas Journal predicting a world oil production peak occurance in the 2006-2007 timeframe. The article is copyrighted and subscription access only, so I can't reproduce it here, but I've seen it. Evidently, the analysis is based on Campbell's conventional reserve estimates, and concludes that the peak will occur at 81 million barrels per day +/- 1 million b/d, while OPEC doesn't actually peak until the middle of the next decade.
This work contrasts with a Wood Mackenzie estimate that Russian production will not peak until over 10 million b/d around 2010, and will carry non-OPEC upward until that time, indicating that a world-wide peak would not occur until sometime after 2010. Look for output numbers by this year's end to settle the dispute.
I confess, though, that I'm a little confused about the 81 million b/d number as a peak estimate, as I think we may already be beyond that now. I'll have to look into that. Interesting, though, that Bakhtiari mentions that "Saudi Aramco's defense of its future oil potential ... simply cannot be taken seriously."
Aren't we at 88M bbls. already?
Posted by: Steven Staton at May 3, 2004 03:23 PMI believe EIA says Jan '04 was 82.6 or so -- a bit over Bakhtiari's 81 (+/- 1) estimate of 2006-07 peak, but then I'm not entirely sure exactly what's being measured with either number. For example, I'm not positive if un-conventional production is included. EIA's number above is total oil supply, which includes crude, natgas plant liquids, etc. Looking at crude-only (including lease condensate) shows only 72.4 for the same month.
Hard to be confident that we're comparing apples to apples.
Look on the bright side: when everyone else is pushing their cars around Heimie, you can zip past them on your bike saying "I fucking told you so!" and have the blog to prove it.
Posted by: Steven Staton at May 3, 2004 04:35 PM